Market Trends

From Mississippi Crop Situation #20
August 14, 2009

Wednesday’s WASDE report contained no real surprises for soybeans, as most figures were generally in line with pre-report expectations. The first objective yield estimate of the year puts the national average soybean yield at 41.7 bushels per acre, down from last month’s trend-line estimate of 42.6 bushels per acre. The estimate of planted acres was increased slightly: 77.7 million acres in this month’s report compared to 77.5 million acres from the June Acreage report. Harvested acres were increased slightly more: 76.8 million acres this month compared with 76.5 million acres last month. The bottom line from these adjustments is a small decrease in estimated total production from 3.260 billion bushels last month to 3.199 billion bushels this month. This estimate is basically right in line with pre-report expectations.

Use estimates for the 2009/10 marketing year were dropped just a bit this month as a consequence of the lowered production expectations. Both domestic crush and export estimates for the coming marketing year were lowered by 10 million bushels. These adjustments leave 2009/10 carryover estimated at 210 million bushels – down from last month’s estimate of 250 million bushels but still 100 million bushels larger than 2008/09 carryover.

Soybean futures were mixed on Wednesday, with remaining old crop contracts declining and new crop November and January contracts steady to slightly higher. Soybean futures rallied sharply in late July, pricing in a fairly positive supply/demand situation in advance of the report. Moving forward, the market will be closely watching crop development. With crop development running behind normal nationally, the potential for late-season problems cannot be overlooked.

Budgets

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Soybean 2010 planning budget

Soybean 2009 planning budget

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